Rule of thumb, the more you hear about it, the more it is likely to be gimmicks. All of the sudden the narrative if diesel shortage is brought to light, front and center. As if the issue is diesel, not the rest of the equation. And before we get into it, let us look at some numbers.
Below are three graphs. These are screen shot of data sets published by the EIA. In order, they are our, as in the US, diesel production4 and diesel consumption (referred to as supply)5. The numbers however are issued weekly. So if you want to look at the latest numbers, use the links provided below. The difference of the production and supply (consumption) is what goes (not all) to exports. And as you see we actually have diesel surplus. The only reason prices went up, is greed, oh I am sorry "free market".
Europe is in a dire need of oil and particularly diesel. The Russian supply were cut when that war started, and now their supply from the middle-east. The price of gallon of diesel there can get up to $10.6 So would you sell a gallon in the US for $6 or %7, or spend 10-20 cents/per gallon to ship it to Europe and sell for $10!
The next thing you hear, as always, price of this and price of that. That by itself if a great smoke screen. As you see from the able we consume about 4 million barrel of diesel a day. Considering 42 gallon per barrel that is 168 million gallon a day. If the price of each gallon increased \$3, that means consumers pay \$500 million extra a day. To put things in perspective, congress approved \$95 billion dollar "package" for Iran war7 , that was July of 2026. By now the cost has risen substantially.8 If you take \$100 billion and divide by \$500 million, that is 200 days. Meaning the budget of the war would have covered 200 days of the cost increase. Granted, if we just stop the war, would would save all that money.
Trump is on record, in the UN out of all place threatening Iran by sending them to the "stone ages". If any other country does that the US will attack them next day. After all for the longest time we consider the chant of "death to America" the "go to" reason for destroying other countries. No a US president threaten other countries alluding to use of nuclear weapons. A clear violation of article 2-4 of the UN charter1 from the podium of the UN, how ironic. In his defense, he probably never heard of it let alone read it.
But is seems Iran is not the only country Trump is sending to the stone ages:
Trump ordered temporary deferral of certain federal diesel excise-tax payments through Dec. 31, 2026, and directed Treasury to provide penalty relief.2
That means less revenue and more debt. The brilliant decision was not taken lightly, it was carefully examined by the "secretary of war",
whose economic expertise surpass his "war" expertise and experience, as stated in section 2.
Trump also rolling back regulation on the uses of dyed diesel, taking the US back in time and adding even more pollution.
Consistent with his poetic policy regarding Covid, "the less you test the less cases you find", Chump has already forced
the removal of Diesel Exhaust Fluid (DEF) sensor. And somehow that is framed as
"provide much needed relief and give American operators countless hours of lost time and productivity back".3
Also, in the same the Environment Protection Agency EPA, or more like EDA as in environment destruction agency has approved an increased volume of pollution due to bio-fuel.9
That clears the way of moving from E10 to E15, i.e. your gas will now have up to 15% ethanol. Adding pollution on pollution and this time ozone gas pollution.10
1 - Chapter I — Purposes and Principles
2 - Emergency Tax Relief on Diesel Fuel
3 -
ICYMI: EPA’s New Guidance Removes Requirement for Diesel Exhaust Fluid (DEF) Sensors, Saves American Operators Billions
4 - Weekly Refiner & Blender Net Production
5 - U.S. Weekly Product Supplied
6 - Diesel prices in Europe on 05-10-2026 - EURO. Remember that these prices are per liter.
7 -
House Republicans adopt $95 billion package for the Iran war and Trump's priorities
8 - Iran war cost tracker
9 - Final Renewable Fuel Standards for 2026 and 2027
10 - Ethanol and Ground Level Ozone